CBOE IBM Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
107.31%
decreased by 8.80%
1 Week
112.02%
decreased by 4.09%
1 Month
115.19%
decreased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -6.09) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 16.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1325 | 15.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4965 | 28.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -6.0902 | -16.35*** |
Persistence:
0.629
Half-life:
1 days
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