V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
44.60%
increased by 5.55%
1 Week
44.70%
increased by 5.65%
1 Month
44.97%
increased by 5.92%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.41) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2238 | 2.46** |
| αARCH | 0.0899 | 7.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8613 | 43.58*** |
| γleverage | -1.4110 | -3.74*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2238 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 7.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8613 | 43.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.4110 | -3.74*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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