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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

44.60%

increased by 5.55%

1 Week

44.70%

increased by 5.65%

1 Month

44.97%

increased by 5.92%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.41) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2238
2.46**
αARCH0.0899
7.54***
βGARCH0.8613
43.58***
γleverage-1.4110
-3.74***

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2238
2.46**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0899
7.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8613
43.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.4110
-3.74***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days