V-Lab
India NSE Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
74.39%
decreased by 2.77%
1 Week
77.18%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
83.61%
increased by 6.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7587 | 2.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0930 | 6.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8270 | 44.84*** |
| γleverage | -3.1260 | -2.52** |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7587 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0930 | 6.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8270 | 44.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.1260 | -2.52** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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