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V-Lab

India NSE Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

74.39%

decreased by 2.77%

1 Week

77.18%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

83.61%

increased by 6.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of India NSE Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 3, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7587
2.99***
αARCH0.0930
6.48***
βGARCH0.8270
44.84***
γleverage-3.1260
-2.52**

0.920

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7587
2.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0930
6.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8270
44.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-3.1260
-2.52**

Persistence:

0.920

Half-life:

8 days