V-Lab
India NSE Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
80.64%
decreased by 3.53%
1 Week
82.35%
decreased by 1.82%
1 Month
86.37%
increased by 2.20%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.12) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7494 | 2.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0927 | 6.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8276 | 45.19*** |
| γleverage | -3.1184 | -2.52** |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7494 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0927 | 6.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8276 | 45.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.1184 | -2.52** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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