India NSE Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
113.25%
decreased by 5.62%
1 Week
118.92%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
124.27%
increased by 5.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1131 | 5.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1520 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5767 | 9.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0517 | 0.74 |
| γ2 | 0.0560 | 0.49 |
| γ3 | -0.2256 | -2.03** |
| γ4 | 0.2482 | 2.49** |
| γ5 | -0.2523 | -3.45*** |
| γ6 | 0.2456 | 2.88*** |
Persistence:
0.729
Half-life:
2 days
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