CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
52.99%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
58.41%
increased by 4.91%
1 Month
65.48%
increased by 11.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5661 | 7.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.1670 | 6.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6520 | 13.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1723 | 5.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.2505 | -5.61*** |
| γ3 | 0.1111 | 3.29*** |
| γ4 | -0.0834 | -1.95* |
0.819
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5661 | 7.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1670 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6520 | 13.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1723 | 5.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.2505 | -5.61*** |
| γ3 | 0.1111 | 3.29*** |
| γ4 | -0.0834 | -1.95* |
Persistence:
0.819
Half-life:
3 days
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