CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
67.28%
decreased by 3.73%
1 Week
69.91%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
73.60%
increased by 2.59%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5682 | 7.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1662 | 6.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6552 | 13.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1767 | 5.87*** |
| γ2 | -0.2541 | -5.49*** |
| γ3 | 0.1060 | 3.05*** |
| γ4 | -0.0635 | -1.46 |
Persistence:
0.821
Half-life:
4 days
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