ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, May 18th, 2026
1 Day
107.03%
increased by 26.73%
1 Week
102.66%
increased by 22.36%
1 Month
95.93%
increased by 15.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 12:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7561 | 7.51 | |
| 0.1135 | 6.96 | |
| 0.7061 | 18.09 | |
| -0.0045 | -0.11 | |
| 0.0448 | 0.80 | |
| -0.0931 | -2.60 | |
| 0.0718 | 1.95 | |
| -0.0191 | -0.52 | |
| 0.0064 | 0.18 | |
| -0.0501 | -1.33 | |
| 0.1398 | 3.61 | |
| -0.1979 | -4.10 | |
| 0.1984 | 2.81 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to May 15, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to May 15, 2026
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