V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
85.16%
decreased by 4.34%
1 Week
86.96%
decreased by 2.54%
1 Month
89.53%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7551 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1129 | 7.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7074 | 18.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0041 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0435 | 0.79 |
| γ3 | -0.0918 | -2.61*** |
| γ4 | 0.0722 | 2.02** |
| γ5 | -0.0204 | -0.57 |
| γ6 | 0.0060 | 0.17 |
| γ7 | -0.0458 | -1.25 |
| γ8 | 0.1336 | 3.54*** |
| γ9 | -0.1953 | -4.18*** |
| γ10 | 0.2009 | 2.93*** |
Persistence:
0.820
Half-life:
3 days
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