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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

87.25%

increased by 2.21%

1 Week

85.06%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

82.13%

decreased by 2.91%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 196% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 196% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1647
8.01***
βGARCH0.7246
21.01***
γleverage-0.1091
-3.97***
λ₁tau intercept0.0551
1.68*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0118
3.15***
λ₃tau persistence0.9852
195.28***

0.835

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1647
8.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7246
21.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1091
-3.97***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0551
1.68*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0118
3.15***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9852
195.28***

Persistence:

0.835

Half-life:

4 days