V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
87.25%
1 Week
85.06%
1 Month
82.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 196% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1647 | 8.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7246 | 21.01*** |
| γleverage | -0.1091 | -3.97*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0551 | 1.68* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0118 | 3.15*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9852 | 195.28*** |
0.835
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1647 | 8.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7246 | 21.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1091 | -3.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0551 | 1.68* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0118 | 3.15*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9852 | 195.28*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
Other ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices