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V-Lab

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

89.94%

increased by 5.74%

1 Week

92.35%

increased by 8.15%

1 Month

96.15%

increased by 11.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1724
40.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8042
110.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1724
-27.37***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0530
2.07**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0104
4.26***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9881
344.65***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days