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CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

120.53%

decreased by 9.18%

1 Week

116.06%

decreased by 13.65%

1 Month

106.32%

decreased by 23.39%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1725
8.88***
βGARCH0.8044
36.30***
γleverage-0.1725
-7.09***
λ₁tau intercept0.0529
1.24
λ₂forecast adj.0.0103
2.85***
λ₃tau persistence0.9882
216.10***

0.891

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1725
8.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8044
36.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1725
-7.09***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0529
1.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0103
2.85***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9882
216.10***

Persistence:

0.891

Half-life:

6 days