V-Lab
CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
89.94%
1 Week
92.35%
1 Month
96.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1724 | 40.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8042 | 110.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1724 | -27.37*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0530 | 2.07** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0104 | 4.26*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9881 | 344.65*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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