V-Lab
CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
93.28%
1 Week
94.64%
1 Month
97.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1720 | 40.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8045 | 109.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1720 | -27.17*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0527 | 2.06** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0106 | 4.26*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9880 | 341.40*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
Other CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices