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CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

84.80%

decreased by 1.77%

1 Week

87.28%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

91.95%

increased by 5.38%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1719
8.87***
βGARCH0.8050
36.38***
γleverage-0.1719
-7.08***
λ₁tau intercept0.0532
1.24
λ₂forecast adj.0.0103
2.84***
λ₃tau persistence0.9882
215.11***

0.891

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1719
8.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8050
36.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1719
-7.08***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0532
1.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0103
2.84***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9882
215.11***

Persistence:

0.891

Half-life:

6 days