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V-Lab

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

82.95%

decreased by 1.77%

1 Week

86.75%

increased by 2.03%

1 Month

94.58%

increased by 9.86%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1721
40.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8042
109.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1721
-27.20***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0528
2.06**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0105
4.25***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9880
341.64***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days