CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
38.67%
1 Week
40.89%
1 Month
45.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3084 | 39.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7449 | 95.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3084 | -27.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3846 | 1.32 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0160 | 1.44 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9469 | 24.61*** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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