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CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

34.71%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Week

37.55%

increased by 1.45%

1 Month

42.94%

increased by 6.84%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.3085
9.09***
βGARCH0.7441
29.16***
γleverage-0.3085
-6.93***
λ₁tau intercept0.4148
0.42
λ₂forecast adj.0.0194
0.45
λ₃tau persistence0.9402
6.95***

0.898

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3085
9.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7441
29.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3085
-6.93***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4148
0.42
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0194
0.45
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9402
6.95***

Persistence:

0.898

Half-life:

6 days