V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
34.71%
1 Week
37.55%
1 Month
42.94%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.3085 | 9.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7441 | 29.16*** |
| γleverage | -0.3085 | -6.93*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.4148 | 0.42 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0194 | 0.45 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9402 | 6.95*** |
0.898
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3085 | 9.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7441 | 29.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3085 | -6.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4148 | 0.42 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0194 | 0.45 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9402 | 6.95*** |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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