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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

38.67%

decreased by 2.23%

1 Week

40.89%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

45.16%

increased by 4.26%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3084
39.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7449
95.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3084
-27.93***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3846
1.32
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0160
1.44
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9469
24.61***

Persistence:

0.899

Half-life:

7 days