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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

35.44%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Week

38.20%

increased by 1.71%

1 Month

43.73%

increased by 7.24%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3075
39.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7448
95.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3075
-27.87***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3923
1.32
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0166
1.44
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9454
23.90***

Persistence:

0.899

Half-life:

6 days