V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
30.13%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Week
35.34%
increased by 3.43%
1 Month
45.88%
increased by 13.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2013 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 107% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 107% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0021 | 6.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.4416 | 6.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5974 | 16.28*** |
| γleverage | -0.2286 | -2.42** |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0021 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4416 | 6.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5974 | 16.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2286 | -2.42** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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