CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
38.73%
decreased by 1.96%
1 Week
41.01%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
46.08%
increased by 5.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8776 | 19.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2919 | 18.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7725 | 129.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2919 | -18.67*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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