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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

38.73%

decreased by 1.96%

1 Week

41.01%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

46.08%

increased by 5.39%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8776
19.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2919
18.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7725
129.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2919
-18.67***

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days