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CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

35.98%

decreased by 1.33%

1 Week

38.77%

increased by 1.46%

1 Month

44.84%

increased by 7.53%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8646
4.75***
αARCH0.2918
4.76***
βGARCH0.7733
32.43***
γleverage-0.2918
-4.70***

0.919

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8646
4.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2918
4.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7733
32.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2918
-4.70***

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days