V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
38.00%
increased by 1.65%
1 Week
40.42%
increased by 4.07%
1 Month
45.73%
increased by 9.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8751 | 19.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2919 | 18.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7725 | 129.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2919 | -18.67*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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