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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

140.59%

increased by 24.33%

1 Week

137.28%

increased by 21.02%

1 Month

129.27%

increased by 13.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
17.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1954
16.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8131
151.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1954
-14.83***

Persistence:

0.911

Half-life:

7 days