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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

108.01%

increased by 10.39%

1 Week

109.83%

increased by 12.21%

1 Month

113.94%

increased by 16.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
17.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1961
16.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8126
151.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1961
-14.87***

Persistence:

0.911

Half-life:

7 days