CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
130.82%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
140.64%
increased by 10.11%
1 Month
153.59%
increased by 23.06%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8485 | 8.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1469 | 5.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6688 | 10.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0234 | -0.81 |
| γ2 | 0.0379 | 0.85 |
| γ3 | -0.0568 | -1.75* |
| γ4 | 0.1361 | 3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.816
Half-life:
3 days
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