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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

130.82%

increased by 0.29%

1 Week

140.64%

increased by 10.11%

1 Month

153.59%

increased by 23.06%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8485
8.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1469
5.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6688
10.30***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0234
-0.81
γ20.0379
0.85
γ3-0.0568
-1.75*
γ40.1361
3.51***

Persistence:

0.816

Half-life:

3 days