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V-Lab

KOSPI 200 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

90.33%

decreased by 3.55%

1 Week

97.94%

increased by 4.06%

1 Month

110.10%

increased by 16.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of KOSPI 200 Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2003 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6465
7.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1692
5.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6903
14.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0289
-1.31
γ20.0122
0.36
γ30.0618
2.08**
γ4-0.1104
-3.09***
γ50.1522
3.34***

Persistence:

0.860

Half-life:

5 days