TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
75.68%
decreased by 2.41%
1 Week
80.96%
increased by 2.87%
1 Month
90.56%
increased by 12.47%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9527 | 7.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.1580 | 5.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7249 | 15.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0385 | -1.68* |
| γ2 | 0.0456 | 1.33 |
| γ3 | 0.0352 | 1.35 |
| γ4 | -0.0987 | -3.47*** |
| γ5 | 0.1003 | 1.80* |
0.883
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9527 | 7.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1580 | 5.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7249 | 15.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0385 | -1.68* |
| γ2 | 0.0456 | 1.33 |
| γ3 | 0.0352 | 1.35 |
| γ4 | -0.0987 | -3.47*** |
| γ5 | 0.1003 | 1.80* |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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