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V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

99.12%

decreased by 8.26%

1 Week

97.15%

decreased by 10.23%

1 Month

93.04%

decreased by 14.34%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9561
7.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1588
5.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7267
15.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0392
-1.66*
γ20.0458
1.29
γ30.0359
1.31
γ4-0.0942
-2.98***
γ50.0777
1.20

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days