V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
94.78%
decreased by 15.27%
1 Week
93.91%
decreased by 16.14%
1 Month
92.03%
decreased by 18.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.03 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 32.2068 | 3.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1327 | 6.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8947 | 40.31*** |
| νDF | 4.0256 | 2.75*** |
0.895
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 32.2068 | 3.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1327 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8947 | 40.31*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0256 | 2.75*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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