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TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

138.91%

increased by 12.65%

1 Week

131.08%

increased by 4.82%

1 Month

112.65%

decreased by 13.61%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 03:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.01 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst32.1802
3.75***
αARCH0.1318
6.33***
βGARCH0.8950
40.20***
νDF4.0148
2.75***

0.895

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

32.1802
3.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1318
6.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8950
40.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0148
2.75***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days