TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
67.55%
decreased by 1.85%
1 Week
72.17%
increased by 2.77%
1 Month
81.21%
increased by 11.81%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 2, 2026 at 12:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 32.1611 | 3.91*** |
| αscore | 0.1314 | 6.47*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8972 | 43.29*** |
| νDF | 4.1212 | 2.69*** |
0.897
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 32.1611 | 3.91*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1314 | 6.47*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8972 | 43.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1212 | 2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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