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TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

94.78%

decreased by 15.27%

1 Week

93.91%

decreased by 16.14%

1 Month

92.03%

decreased by 18.02%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.03 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst32.2068
3.78***
αARCH0.1327
6.35***
βGARCH0.8947
40.31***
νDF4.0256
2.75***

0.895

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

32.2068
3.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1327
6.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8947
40.31***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0256
2.75***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days