V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
77.06%
decreased by 10.25%
1 Week
79.63%
decreased by 7.68%
1 Month
84.88%
decreased by 2.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 32.1663 | 14.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1303 | 25.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8973 | 162.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0053 | 11.00*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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