Skip to main content
V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

77.06%

decreased by 10.25%

1 Week

79.63%

decreased by 7.68%

1 Month

84.88%

decreased by 2.43%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

32.1663
14.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1303
25.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8973
162.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0053
11.00***

Persistence:

0.897

Half-life:

6 days