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TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

112.38%

increased by 12.41%

1 Week

108.47%

increased by 8.50%

1 Month

99.66%

decreased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

32.0066
14.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1315
25.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8948
159.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9972
10.99***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days