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TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

67.55%

decreased by 1.85%

1 Week

72.17%

increased by 2.77%

1 Month

81.21%

increased by 11.81%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 2, 2026 at 12:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.12 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run32.1611
3.91***
αscore0.1314
6.47***
βpersistence0.8972
43.29***
νDF4.1212
2.69***

0.897

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

32.1611
3.91***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1314
6.47***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8972
43.29***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1212
2.69***

Persistence:

0.897

Half-life:

6 days