V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
138.91%
increased by 12.65%
1 Week
131.08%
increased by 4.82%
1 Month
112.65%
decreased by 13.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 03:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.01 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 32.1802 | 3.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.1318 | 6.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8950 | 40.20*** |
| νDF | 4.0148 | 2.75*** |
0.895
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 32.1802 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1318 | 6.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8950 | 40.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0148 | 2.75*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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