TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
112.38%
increased by 12.41%
1 Week
108.47%
increased by 8.50%
1 Month
99.66%
decreased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 32.0066 | 14.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1315 | 25.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8948 | 159.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9972 | 10.99*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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