V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
98.61%
decreased by 16.07%
1 Week
97.05%
decreased by 17.63%
1 Month
93.65%
decreased by 21.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 32.1606 | 14.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1310 | 25.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8955 | 159.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9881 | 10.99*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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