CBOE Gold Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
118.53%
increased by 2.74%
1 Week
114.26%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Month
102.92%
decreased by 12.87%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 12:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.1753 | 11.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1056 | 18.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9228 | 138.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1320 | 5.29*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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