V-Lab
CBOE Gold Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
77.20%
increased by 14.38%
1 Week
78.24%
increased by 15.42%
1 Month
80.76%
increased by 17.94%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.0967 | 12.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1063 | 18.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9215 | 137.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1440 | 5.30*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
Other CBOE Gold Volatility Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Volatility Indices