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CBOE Gold Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

118.53%

increased by 2.74%

1 Week

114.26%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Month

102.92%

decreased by 12.87%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 12:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

28.1753
11.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1056
18.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9228
138.68***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1320
5.29***

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days