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CBOE Gold Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

77.20%

increased by 14.38%

1 Week

78.24%

increased by 15.42%

1 Month

80.76%

increased by 17.94%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

28.0967
12.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1063
18.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9215
137.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1440
5.30***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days