V-Lab
CBOE Gold Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
78.71%
decreased by 5.05%
1 Week
79.53%
decreased by 4.23%
1 Month
81.51%
decreased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.1304 | 12.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1058 | 18.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9216 | 138.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1519 | 5.26*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
8 days
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