S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
78.37%
increased by 6.63%
1 Week
82.81%
increased by 11.07%
1 Month
93.03%
increased by 21.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.66 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 44.7666 | 2.70*** |
| αscore | 0.1105 | 4.89*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9249 | 31.39*** |
| νDF | 4.6553 | 1.70* |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 44.7666 | 2.70*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1105 | 4.89*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9249 | 31.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6553 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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