V-Lab
S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
113.23%
increased by 18.00%
1 Week
112.30%
increased by 17.07%
1 Month
109.92%
increased by 14.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.60 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 44.8687 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.1085 | 4.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9254 | 30.95*** |
| νDF | 4.5963 | 1.70* |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 44.8687 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1085 | 4.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9254 | 30.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5963 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
Other S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Volatility Indices