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S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

117.64%

increased by 20.57%

1 Week

116.13%

increased by 19.06%

1 Month

112.22%

increased by 15.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.61 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst44.7725
2.66***
αARCH0.1083
4.82***
βGARCH0.9253
31.08***
νDF4.6086
1.69*

0.925

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

44.7725
2.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1083
4.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9253
31.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6086
1.69*

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days