Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

78.37%

increased by 6.63%

1 Week

82.81%

increased by 11.07%

1 Month

93.03%

increased by 21.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run44.7666
2.70***
αscore0.1105
4.89***
βpersistence0.9249
31.39***
νDF4.6553
1.70*

0.925

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

44.7666
2.70***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1105
4.89***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9249
31.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6553
1.70*

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days