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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

80.46%

decreased by 5.49%

1 Week

84.44%

decreased by 1.51%

1 Month

93.97%

increased by 8.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

45.6520
9.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0982
17.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9299
119.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5157
6.13***

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

10 days