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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

96.28%

increased by 5.09%

1 Week

97.71%

increased by 6.52%

1 Month

101.23%

increased by 10.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.59 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst44.8288
2.61***
αARCH0.1085
4.84***
βGARCH0.9265
31.03***
νDF4.5867
1.71*

0.927

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

44.8288
2.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1085
4.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9265
31.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5867
1.71*

Persistence:

0.927

Half-life:

9 days