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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

113.23%

increased by 18.00%

1 Week

112.30%

increased by 17.07%

1 Month

109.92%

increased by 14.69%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst44.8687
2.64***
αARCH0.1085
4.81***
βGARCH0.9254
30.95***
νDF4.5963
1.70*

0.925

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

44.8687
2.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1085
4.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9254
30.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5963
1.70*

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days