V-Lab
S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
96.28%
increased by 5.09%
1 Week
97.71%
increased by 6.52%
1 Month
101.23%
increased by 10.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.59 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 44.8288 | 2.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1085 | 4.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9265 | 31.03*** |
| νDF | 4.5867 | 1.71* |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 44.8288 | 2.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1085 | 4.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 31.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5867 | 1.71* |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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