V-Lab
S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
108.65%
1 Week
109.28%
1 Month
110.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.50 |
| αARCH | 0.1465 | 4.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7866 | 18.63*** |
| γleverage | -0.1085 | -0.54 |
| δpower | 1.2090 | 4.19*** |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1465 | 4.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7866 | 18.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1085 | -0.54 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2090 | 4.19*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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