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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

81.69%

decreased by 5.49%

1 Week

87.35%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

99.98%

increased by 12.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
5.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1395
16.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7931
70.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0795
-1.52
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2051
15.66***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days