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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

108.65%

increased by 4.71%

1 Week

109.28%

increased by 5.34%

1 Month

110.70%

increased by 6.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifeδ = 1.21 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.50
αARCH0.1465
4.52***
βGARCH0.7866
18.63***
γleverage-0.1085
-0.54
δpower1.2090
4.19***

0.906

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.50
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1465
4.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7866
18.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1085
-0.54
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2090
4.19***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days