S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
113.09%
increased by 30.20%
1 Week
107.85%
increased by 24.96%
1 Month
98.28%
increased by 15.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8632 | 13.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.1626 | 6.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6900 | 17.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0043 | -2.83*** |
0.853
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8632 | 13.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1626 | 6.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6900 | 17.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0043 | -2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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