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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

113.09%

increased by 30.20%

1 Week

107.85%

increased by 24.96%

1 Month

98.28%

increased by 15.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8632
13.48***
αARCH0.1626
6.24***
βGARCH0.6900
17.24***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0043
-2.83***

0.853

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8632
13.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1626
6.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6900
17.24***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0043
-2.83***

Persistence:

0.853

Half-life:

4 days