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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

82.63%

decreased by 3.47%

1 Week

88.50%

increased by 2.40%

1 Month

98.11%

increased by 12.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8896
12.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1487
5.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7130
17.35***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0021
-0.97

Persistence:

0.862

Half-life:

5 days