V-Lab
S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
82.63%
decreased by 3.47%
1 Week
88.50%
increased by 2.40%
1 Month
98.11%
increased by 12.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8896 | 12.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1487 | 5.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7130 | 17.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0021 | -0.97 |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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