V-Lab
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
81.53%
decreased by 5.38%
1 Week
83.13%
decreased by 3.78%
1 Month
85.46%
decreased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7841 | 13.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.1219 | 4.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7041 | 12.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0022 | -2.35** |
0.826
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7841 | 13.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1219 | 4.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7041 | 12.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0022 | -2.35** |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
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