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V-Lab

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

81.53%

decreased by 5.38%

1 Week

83.13%

decreased by 3.78%

1 Month

85.46%

decreased by 1.45%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7841
13.37***
αARCH0.1219
4.58***
βGARCH0.7041
12.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0022
-2.35**

0.826

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7841
13.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1219
4.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7041
12.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0022
-2.35**

Persistence:

0.826

Half-life:

4 days