V-Lab
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
90.51%
increased by 4.07%
1 Week
92.13%
increased by 5.69%
1 Month
94.63%
increased by 8.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8371 | 16.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1225 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7133 | 13.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
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