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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

95.47%

decreased by 2.66%

1 Week

95.61%

decreased by 2.52%

1 Month

95.83%

decreased by 2.30%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8400
16.31***
αARCH0.1223
4.58***
βGARCH0.7127
13.14***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-2.70***

0.835

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8400
16.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1223
4.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7127
13.14***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-2.70***

Persistence:

0.835

Half-life:

4 days