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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

81.81%

decreased by 3.24%

1 Week

86.02%

increased by 0.97%

1 Month

92.22%

increased by 7.17%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8391
16.26***
αARCH0.1222
4.57***
βGARCH0.7131
13.15***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-2.69***

0.835

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8391
16.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1222
4.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7131
13.15***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-2.69***

Persistence:

0.835

Half-life:

4 days