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V-Lab

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

97.58%

increased by 11.60%

1 Week

97.16%

increased by 11.18%

1 Month

96.50%

increased by 10.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8386
16.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1224
4.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7131
13.14***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-2.69***

Persistence:

0.836

Half-life:

4 days