V-Lab
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
98.27%
increased by 6.46%
1 Week
97.65%
increased by 5.84%
1 Month
96.66%
increased by 4.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8391 | 16.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.1223 | 4.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7131 | 13.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -2.68*** |
0.835
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8391 | 16.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1223 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7131 | 13.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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