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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026

1 Day

89.63%

increased by 1.38%

1 Week

91.42%

increased by 3.17%

1 Month

94.17%

increased by 5.92%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/27/2024

to

10/27/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8403
16.33***
αARCH0.1219
4.57***
βGARCH0.7134
13.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-2.68***

0.835

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8403
16.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1219
4.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7134
13.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-2.68***

Persistence:

0.835

Half-life:

4 days