V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
115.16%
decreased by 5.38%
1 Week
119.38%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Month
123.88%
increased by 3.34%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7256 | 15.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1269 | 5.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6299 | 11.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0032 | -4.67*** |
Persistence:
0.757
Half-life:
2 days
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