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V-Lab

CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

114.77%

increased by 11.60%

1 Week

115.74%

increased by 12.57%

1 Month

117.29%

increased by 14.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7771
15.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0880
4.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7544
15.65***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0026
-4.08***

Persistence:

0.842

Half-life:

4 days