V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
114.77%
increased by 11.60%
1 Week
115.74%
increased by 12.57%
1 Month
117.29%
increased by 14.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7771 | 15.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0880 | 4.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7544 | 15.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0026 | -4.08*** |
Persistence:
0.842
Half-life:
4 days
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