V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
101.20%
decreased by 2.29%
1 Week
104.51%
increased by 1.02%
1 Month
109.62%
increased by 6.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7556 | 12.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 4.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7542 | 15.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0042 | -1.45 |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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