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V-Lab

CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

101.20%

decreased by 2.29%

1 Week

104.51%

increased by 1.02%

1 Month

109.62%

increased by 6.13%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7556
12.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0867
4.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7542
15.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0042
-1.45

Persistence:

0.841

Half-life:

4 days