V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
123.00%
1 Week
121.23%
1 Month
117.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1435 | 28.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7948 | 70.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1355 | -12.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5630 | 1.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0289 | 1.69* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9591 | 37.34*** |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
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