V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Last recorded values (Monday, August 17th, 2026):
1 Day
95.61%
1 Week
99.97%
1 Month
107.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1429 | 5.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7955 | 18.13*** |
| γleverage | -0.1350 | -3.26*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.5797 | 1.05 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0292 | 1.43 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9584 | 31.11*** |
0.871
Persistence5d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1429 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7955 | 18.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1350 | -3.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5797 | 1.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0292 | 1.43 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9584 | 31.11*** |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
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