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V-Lab

CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

95.61%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Week

99.97%

increased by 3.09%

1 Month

107.55%

increased by 10.67%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1429
28.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7955
70.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1350
-12.20***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5797
1.18
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0292
1.67*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9584
36.39***

Persistence:

0.871

Half-life:

5 days