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V-Lab

CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

123.00%

increased by 18.78%

1 Week

121.23%

increased by 17.01%

1 Month

117.86%

increased by 13.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1435
28.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7948
70.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1355
-12.24***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5630
1.18
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0289
1.69*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9591
37.34***

Persistence:

0.871

Half-life:

5 days