V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
95.61%
1 Week
99.97%
1 Month
107.55%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1429 | 28.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7955 | 70.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1350 | -12.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5797 | 1.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0292 | 1.67* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9584 | 36.39*** |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
Other CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices