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V-Lab

CBOE Realized Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

36.27%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

41.27%

increased by 4.75%

1 Month

43.97%

increased by 7.45%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Realized Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 1, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0172
1.95*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3116
3.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
15.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

7.9839
0.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.579

Half-life:

1 days