V-Lab
CBOE Realized Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
35.82%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
41.05%
increased by 4.30%
1 Month
43.91%
increased by 7.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 1, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0169 | 1.95* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3172 | 3.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 15.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.9812 | 0.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.584
Half-life:
1 days
Other CBOE Realized Volatility Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices