CBOE Realized Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
37.03%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
38.31%
increased by 1.38%
1 Month
39.07%
increased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 1, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 4.36) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7978 | 4.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0921 | 10.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4931 | 21.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 4.3590 | 13.07*** |
Persistence:
0.585
Half-life:
1 days
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