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V-Lab

CBOE Realized Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

37.03%

increased by 0.10%

1 Week

38.31%

increased by 1.38%

1 Month

39.07%

increased by 2.14%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Realized Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 1, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 4.36) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7978
4.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0921
10.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4931
21.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

4.3590
13.07***

Persistence:

0.585

Half-life:

1 days