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V-Lab

CBOE Skew Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

42.14%

decreased by 3.03%

1 Week

42.40%

decreased by 2.77%

1 Month

43.36%

decreased by 1.81%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Skew Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.66) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0715
6.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1316
43.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8565
284.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.6573
-13.26***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days