CBOE Skew Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
42.14%
decreased by 3.03%
1 Week
42.40%
decreased by 2.77%
1 Month
43.36%
decreased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.66) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0715 | 6.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1316 | 43.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8565 | 284.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.6573 | -13.26*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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