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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

180.20%

decreased by 17.48%

1 Week

192.65%

decreased by 5.03%

1 Month

225.83%

increased by 28.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.49) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.0000
25.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2250
49.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7295
217.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.4932
-3.84***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days