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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

153.01%

decreased by 12.03%

1 Week

164.65%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

201.83%

increased by 36.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
5.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1748
29.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8239
135.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0152
-0.41
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1208
19.23***

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days