V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
153.01%
decreased by 12.03%
1 Week
164.65%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
201.83%
increased by 36.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1748 | 29.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8239 | 135.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0152 | -0.41 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1208 | 19.23*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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