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CBOE IBM Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

99.41%

increased by 7.42%

1 Week

105.10%

increased by 13.11%

1 Month

117.57%

increased by 25.58%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE IBM Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.10 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifeδ = 1.10 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.32
αARCH0.0936
1.43
βGARCH0.8208
16.73***
γleverage-1.0000
-0.95
δpower1.0992
3.67***

0.901

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.32
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0936
1.43
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8208
16.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-0.95
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0992
3.67***

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days