CBOE IBM Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
99.41%
1 Week
105.10%
1 Month
117.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.10 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.32 |
| αARCH | 0.0936 | 1.43 |
| βGARCH | 0.8208 | 16.73*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -0.95 |
| δpower | 1.0992 | 3.67*** |
0.901
Persistence7d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.32 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 1.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8208 | 16.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.95 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0992 | 3.67*** |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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