V-Lab
CBOE IBM Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
84.62%
decreased by 1.79%
1 Week
93.28%
increased by 6.87%
1 Month
112.08%
increased by 25.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0933 | 5.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8204 | 65.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -4.00*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0928 | 14.33*** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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