V-Lab
S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
73.87%
decreased by 4.67%
1 Week
87.68%
increased by 9.14%
1 Month
117.66%
increased by 39.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2351 | 26.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7117 | 65.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2990 | 6.15*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0345 | 11.58*** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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