S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
131.11%
increased by 45.44%
1 Week
132.95%
increased by 47.28%
1 Month
137.94%
increased by 52.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Oct 8, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 3.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.1920 | 3.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7498 | 14.90*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1920 | 3.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7498 | 14.90*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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