CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
77.22%
increased by 4.28%
1 Week
80.63%
increased by 7.69%
1 Month
85.85%
increased by 12.91%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 4.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.1232 | 4.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7184 | 14.68*** |
0.842
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1232 | 4.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7184 | 14.68*** |
Persistence:
0.842
Half-life:
4 days
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