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V-Lab

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

92.15%

decreased by 6.30%

1 Week

90.77%

decreased by 7.68%

1 Month

87.96%

decreased by 10.49%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1820
30.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7690
84.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1819
-21.26***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7186
1.03
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0179
1.20
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9582
25.79***

Persistence:

0.860

Half-life:

5 days