CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
92.15%
1 Week
90.77%
1 Month
87.96%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1820 | 30.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7690 | 84.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1819 | -21.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7186 | 1.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0179 | 1.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9582 | 25.79*** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
Other CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices