CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
69.67%
1 Week
73.76%
1 Month
80.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.1822 | 6.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7681 | 25.53*** |
| γleverage | -0.1822 | -5.57*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.7257 | 0.91 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0181 | 1.12 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9577 | 23.11*** |
0.859
Persistence5d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1822 | 6.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7681 | 25.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1822 | -5.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7257 | 0.91 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0181 | 1.12 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9577 | 23.11*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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