Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

69.67%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

73.76%

increased by 3.61%

1 Month

80.36%

increased by 10.21%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/12/2024

to

10/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.1822
6.20***
βGARCH0.7681
25.53***
γleverage-0.1822
-5.57***
λ₁tau intercept0.7257
0.91
λ₂forecast adj.0.0181
1.12
λ₃tau persistence0.9577
23.11***

0.859

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1822
6.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7681
25.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1822
-5.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7257
0.91
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0181
1.12
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9577
23.11***

Persistence:

0.859

Half-life:

5 days