V-Lab
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
73.65%
1 Week
76.68%
1 Month
81.86%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1817 | 30.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7688 | 84.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1817 | -21.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7204 | 1.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0179 | 1.19 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9582 | 25.67*** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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