V-Lab
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
84.09%
1 Week
84.37%
1 Month
85.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1821 | 30.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7683 | 84.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1821 | -21.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7277 | 1.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0181 | 1.19 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9577 | 25.34*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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