Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

73.65%

decreased by 2.03%

1 Week

76.68%

increased by 1.00%

1 Month

81.86%

increased by 6.18%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1817
30.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7688
84.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1817
-21.19***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7204
1.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0179
1.19
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9582
25.67***

Persistence:

0.860

Half-life:

5 days