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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

90.15%

decreased by 5.86%

1 Week

89.19%

decreased by 6.82%

1 Month

87.75%

decreased by 8.26%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.1815
6.19***
βGARCH0.7684
25.52***
γleverage-0.1815
-5.57***
λ₁tau intercept0.7297
0.91
λ₂forecast adj.0.0181
1.12
λ₃tau persistence0.9576
23.02***

0.859

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1815
6.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7684
25.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1815
-5.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7297
0.91
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0181
1.12
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9576
23.02***

Persistence:

0.859

Half-life:

5 days