CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
90.15%
1 Week
89.19%
1 Month
87.75%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.1815 | 6.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7684 | 25.52*** |
| γleverage | -0.1815 | -5.57*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.7297 | 0.91 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0181 | 1.12 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9576 | 23.02*** |
0.859
Persistence5d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1815 | 6.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7684 | 25.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1815 | -5.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7297 | 0.91 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0181 | 1.12 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9576 | 23.02*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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