V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
55.91%
1 Week
59.23%
1 Month
65.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2809 | 39.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7487 | 89.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2809 | -28.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.5595 | 0.67 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0183 | 0.67 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9076 | 6.66*** |
Persistence:
0.889
Half-life:
6 days
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