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V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

72.44%

increased by 12.30%

1 Week

72.27%

increased by 12.13%

1 Month

71.99%

increased by 11.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2805
39.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7495
90.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2805
-28.86***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5191
0.67
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0170
0.66
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9111
6.86***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days