CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
83.07%
1 Week
80.74%
1 Month
75.87%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.2822 | 9.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7487 | 32.41*** |
| γleverage | -0.2822 | -7.25*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.5142 | 0.34 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0189 | 0.39 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9090 | 3.54*** |
0.890
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2822 | 9.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7487 | 32.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2822 | -7.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.5142 | 0.34 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0189 | 0.39 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9090 | 3.54*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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