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CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

83.07%

decreased by 9.09%

1 Week

80.74%

decreased by 11.42%

1 Month

75.87%

decreased by 16.29%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.2822
9.27***
βGARCH0.7487
32.41***
γleverage-0.2822
-7.25***
λ₁tau intercept1.5142
0.34
λ₂forecast adj.0.0189
0.39
λ₃tau persistence0.9090
3.54***

0.890

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2822
9.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7487
32.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2822
-7.25***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5142
0.34
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0189
0.39
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9090
3.54***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days