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V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

70.83%

increased by 6.97%

1 Week

70.91%

increased by 7.05%

1 Month

71.06%

increased by 7.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.2807
9.21***
βGARCH0.7492
32.38***
γleverage-0.2807
-7.20***
λ₁tau intercept1.5402
0.34
λ₂forecast adj.0.0188
0.39
λ₃tau persistence0.9079
3.48***

0.890

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2807
9.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7492
32.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2807
-7.20***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5402
0.34
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0188
0.39
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9079
3.48***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days