Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

61.12%

increased by 12.65%

1 Week

62.86%

increased by 14.39%

1 Month

66.55%

increased by 18.08%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.2811
9.24***
βGARCH0.7492
32.46***
γleverage-0.2811
-7.23***
λ₁tau intercept1.5316
0.35
λ₂forecast adj.0.0200
0.41
λ₃tau persistence0.9067
3.59***

0.890

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2811
9.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7492
32.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2811
-7.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5316
0.35
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0200
0.41
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9067
3.59***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days