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CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

52.47%

increased by 0.25%

1 Week

56.41%

increased by 4.19%

1 Month

63.85%

increased by 11.63%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.2807
9.22***
βGARCH0.7492
32.37***
γleverage-0.2807
-7.21***
λ₁tau intercept1.5163
0.34
λ₂forecast adj.0.0188
0.39
λ₃tau persistence0.9089
3.55***

0.889

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2807
9.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7492
32.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2807
-7.21***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5163
0.34
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0188
0.39
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9089
3.55***

Persistence:

0.889

Half-life:

6 days