CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
98.70%
1 Week
102.36%
1 Month
110.48%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1177 | 18.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8606 | 74.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1177 | -18.35*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2430 | 1.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0100 | 1.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9852 | 94.64*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
Other CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices