V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
100.08%
1 Week
102.88%
1 Month
109.11%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1171 | 18.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8613 | 74.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1171 | -18.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2729 | 1.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0106 | 1.45 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9840 | 86.92*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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