CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
93.91%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
97.36%
increased by 2.65%
1 Month
104.42%
increased by 9.71%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 16.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0963 | 20.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8022 | 82.99*** |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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