CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
113.71%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Week
120.07%
increased by 4.76%
1 Month
126.73%
increased by 11.42%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7371 | 13.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1284 | 5.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6283 | 11.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0022 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.757
Half-life:
2 days
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