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V-Lab

CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

113.71%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Week

120.07%

increased by 4.76%

1 Month

126.73%

increased by 11.42%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7371
13.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1284
5.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6283
11.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0022
-0.84

Persistence:

0.757

Half-life:

2 days