V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
100.55%
decreased by 7.14%
1 Week
105.78%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Month
111.23%
increased by 3.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0033 | 6.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.1944 | 5.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5595 | 10.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1087 | 0.45 |
| γ2 | 0.0023 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.2615 | -0.71 |
| γ4 | 0.3080 | 1.08 |
| γ5 | -0.4198 | -1.66* |
| γ6 | 0.8599 | 2.59*** |
| γ7 | -1.3457 | -3.18*** |
| γ8 | 1.2347 | 2.77*** |
| γ9 | -0.8032 | -1.75* |
| γ10 | 0.5569 | 1.08 |
0.754
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0033 | 6.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1944 | 5.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5595 | 10.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1087 | 0.45 |
| γ2 | 0.0023 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.2615 | -0.71 |
| γ4 | 0.3080 | 1.08 |
| γ5 | -0.4198 | -1.66* |
| γ6 | 0.8599 | 2.59*** |
| γ7 | -1.3457 | -3.18*** |
| γ8 | 1.2347 | 2.77*** |
| γ9 | -0.8032 | -1.75* |
| γ10 | 0.5569 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.754
Half-life:
2 days
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