V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
91.30%
decreased by 6.36%
1 Week
98.90%
increased by 1.24%
1 Month
111.63%
increased by 13.97%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.24) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.8443 | 16.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1662 | 22.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7031 | 72.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.2435 | -9.71*** |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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