V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
95.72%
decreased by 10.35%
1 Week
100.58%
decreased by 5.49%
1 Month
105.73%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9976 | 6.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1948 | 5.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5639 | 10.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1036 | 0.42 |
| γ2 | 0.0069 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.2578 | -0.69 |
| γ4 | 0.3040 | 1.07 |
| γ5 | -0.4235 | -1.65* |
| γ6 | 0.8635 | 2.53** |
| γ7 | -1.3128 | -3.02*** |
| γ8 | 1.1313 | 2.51** |
| γ9 | -0.6250 | -1.48 |
| γ10 | 0.3016 | 1.07 |
Persistence:
0.759
Half-life:
3 days
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