V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
85.80%
decreased by 4.31%
1 Week
94.58%
increased by 4.47%
1 Month
103.69%
increased by 13.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9976 | 6.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1946 | 5.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5693 | 10.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1063 | 0.43 |
| γ2 | 0.0027 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.2571 | -0.68 |
| γ4 | 0.3099 | 1.09 |
| γ5 | -0.4377 | -1.69* |
| γ6 | 0.8794 | 2.54** |
| γ7 | -1.3123 | -2.97*** |
| γ8 | 1.1057 | 2.40** |
| γ9 | -0.5953 | -1.37 |
| γ10 | 0.2890 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.764
Half-life:
3 days
Other CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices