V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
90.18%
decreased by 6.25%
1 Week
96.49%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
102.99%
increased by 6.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9966 | 6.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1945 | 5.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5607 | 10.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1050 | 0.43 |
| γ2 | 0.0022 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.2506 | -0.68 |
| γ4 | 0.2942 | 1.03 |
| γ5 | -0.4091 | -1.61 |
| γ6 | 0.8496 | 2.53** |
| γ7 | -1.3170 | -3.08*** |
| γ8 | 1.1647 | 2.64*** |
| γ9 | -0.6745 | -1.63 |
| γ10 | 0.3386 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.755
Half-life:
2 days
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