CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
90.46%
increased by 20.26%
1 Week
89.66%
increased by 19.46%
1 Month
88.47%
increased by 18.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5566 | 7.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1685 | 6.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6515 | 13.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1716 | 5.72*** |
| γ2 | -0.2422 | -5.31*** |
| γ3 | 0.0845 | 2.79*** |
| γ4 | -0.0096 | -0.48 |
Persistence:
0.820
Half-life:
3 days
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