V-Lab
CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
85.03%
increased by 2.89%
1 Week
85.46%
increased by 3.32%
1 Month
86.08%
increased by 3.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5507 | 7.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.1681 | 6.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6506 | 13.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1669 | 5.72*** |
| γ2 | -0.2363 | -5.33*** |
| γ3 | 0.0829 | 2.82*** |
| γ4 | -0.0086 | -0.45 |
0.819
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5507 | 7.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1681 | 6.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6506 | 13.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1669 | 5.72*** |
| γ2 | -0.2363 | -5.33*** |
| γ3 | 0.0829 | 2.82*** |
| γ4 | -0.0086 | -0.45 |
Persistence:
0.819
Half-life:
3 days
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