Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE Skew Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

48.65%

decreased by 6.74%

1 Week

50.19%

decreased by 5.20%

1 Month

52.11%

decreased by 3.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Skew Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8398
4.22***
αARCH0.2652
10.99***
βGARCH0.5277
14.91***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0955
2.11**
γ2-0.0529
-0.88
γ3-0.0810
-1.91*
γ40.1248
2.82***
γ5-0.1999
-5.23***
γ60.2104
5.69***
γ7-0.1319
-3.95***
γ8-0.0173
-0.55
γ90.1286
4.06***
γ10-0.1101
-4.71***

0.793

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8398
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2652
10.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5277
14.91***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0955
2.11**
γ2-0.0529
-0.88
γ3-0.0810
-1.91*
γ40.1248
2.82***
γ5-0.1999
-5.23***
γ60.2104
5.69***
γ7-0.1319
-3.95***
γ8-0.0173
-0.55
γ90.1286
4.06***
γ10-0.1101
-4.71***

Persistence:

0.793

Half-life:

3 days