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V-Lab

CBOE Skew Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

45.74%

increased by 2.86%

1 Week

48.19%

increased by 5.31%

1 Month

51.20%

increased by 8.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Skew Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8539
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2670
11.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5278
15.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0942
2.06**
γ2-0.0490
-0.80
γ3-0.0869
-2.00**
γ40.1323
2.92***
γ5-0.2067
-5.28***
γ60.2116
5.66***
γ7-0.1248
-3.68***
γ8-0.0286
-0.87
γ90.1345
4.14***
γ10-0.1089
-4.64***

Persistence:

0.795

Half-life:

3 days