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V-Lab

CBOE Skew Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

37.26%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

41.49%

increased by 3.39%

1 Month

45.02%

increased by 6.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Skew Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 87% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 87% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.3376
8.72***
βGARCH0.4733
11.92***
γleverage-0.1570
-3.41***
λ₁tau intercept0.0161
2.38**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0303
5.24***
λ₃tau persistence0.9673
155.57***

0.732

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3376
8.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4733
11.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1570
-3.41***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0161
2.38**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0303
5.24***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9673
155.57***

Persistence:

0.732

Half-life:

2 days