V-Lab
CBOE Skew Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.51%
increased by 3.00%
1 Week
43.55%
increased by 3.04%
1 Month
43.70%
increased by 3.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.9698 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 43.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9847 | 355.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4104 | 16.06*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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