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CBOE Skew Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

43.51%

increased by 3.00%

1 Week

43.55%

increased by 3.04%

1 Month

43.70%

increased by 3.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Skew Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.9698
5.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1044
43.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9847
355.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4104
16.06***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days