V-Lab
CBOE Skew Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
36.85%
decreased by 3.49%
1 Week
37.11%
decreased by 3.23%
1 Month
38.05%
decreased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.0603 | 5.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1020 | 43.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9855 | 365.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3938 | 16.21*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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