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CBOE DJIA Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

100.01%

increased by 11.34%

1 Week

102.40%

increased by 13.73%

1 Month

107.82%

increased by 19.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

51.8448
14.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1238
27.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9141
171.07***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9796
13.02***

Persistence:

0.914

Half-life:

8 days