V-Lab
CBOE DJIA Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
132.86%
increased by 19.81%
1 Week
130.12%
increased by 17.07%
1 Month
123.42%
increased by 10.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 51.9119 | 14.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1239 | 27.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9142 | 170.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9762 | 13.04*** |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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