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CBOE DJIA Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

132.86%

increased by 19.81%

1 Week

130.12%

increased by 17.07%

1 Month

123.42%

increased by 10.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

51.9119
14.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1239
27.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9142
170.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9762
13.04***

Persistence:

0.914

Half-life:

8 days