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CBOE DJIA Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

119.63%

increased by 1.40%

1 Week

118.79%

increased by 0.56%

1 Month

116.77%

decreased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 3.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst51.7180
3.70***
αARCH0.1236
7.01***
βGARCH0.9141
43.07***
νDF3.9873
3.25***

0.914

Persistence

8d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

51.7180
3.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1236
7.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9141
43.07***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9873
3.25***

Persistence:

0.914

Half-life:

8 days