CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
56.48%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
61.56%
increased by 6.16%
1 Month
76.91%
increased by 21.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4487 | 3.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1432 | 6.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8382 | 39.98*** |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4487 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1432 | 6.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8382 | 39.98*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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