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CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

56.48%

increased by 1.08%

1 Week

61.56%

increased by 6.16%

1 Month

76.91%

increased by 21.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days.

μ

MEM Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4487
3.00***
αARCH0.1432
6.61***
βGARCH0.8382
39.98***

0.981

Persistence

37d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4487
3.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1432
6.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8382
39.98***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days