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V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

77.08%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

77.43%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

78.78%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2015 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~162 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2084
1.17
αARCH0.0491
4.09***
βGARCH0.9466
97.20***

0.996

Persistence

162d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2084
1.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0491
4.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9466
97.20***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

162 days