TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
77.70%
decreased by 1.64%
1 Week
78.03%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Month
79.32%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2015 to Oct 29, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 155 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~155 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2102 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0490 | 4.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9466 | 97.48*** |
0.996
Persistence155d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2102 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0490 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9466 | 97.48*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
155 days
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