V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
77.08%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
77.43%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
78.78%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2015 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~162 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2084 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.0491 | 4.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9466 | 97.20*** |
0.996
Persistence162d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2084 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0491 | 4.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9466 | 97.20*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
162 days
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